SpaceX Public-Private Deep Space Program Plans

SpaceX has proposed a series of public-private partnerships with NASA to develop deep space capabilities, most notably the Starship Human Landing System (HLS) for returning astronauts to the Moon and the uncrewed Starship cargo missions to Mars. Under these proposals, SpaceX provides the launch vehicles and spacecraft, while NASA supplies funding, technical oversight, and integration with its own Artemis program architecture. The goal is to lower the cost of deep space access by leveraging commercial competition and reusable rocket technology.

Formula

The calculator above computes the average speed of a deep space mission given its duration and distance. The formula is:

Average speed (km/h) = (Distance in km) ÷ (Duration in hours)

Where:

• Distance is entered in millions of kilometers (e.g., 225 million km for Mars at closest approach).
• Duration is entered in days.
• Average speed is shown in both km/h and km/s for convenience.

Worked Example

Using the default values: a 30-day mission to a destination 225 million km away.

1. Convert distance to km: 225 × 1,000,000 = 225,000,000 km
2. Convert duration to hours: 30 × 24 = 720 hours
3. Divide distance by time: 225,000,000 ÷ 720 = 312,500 km/h
4. Convert to km/s: 312,500 ÷ 3600 = 86.81 km/s

The calculator returns an average speed of 312,500 km/h (86.81 km/s). This is a theoretical average; real missions follow elliptical transfer orbits with varying speeds.

Background: The Shift to Public-Private Partnerships

SpaceX’s deep space proposals are built on the model established by NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program in the 2000s, which funded private cargo spacecraft like Dragon. That program proved that fixed-price contracts with private companies could deliver reliable space services at lower cost than traditional cost-plus contracts. SpaceX’s current deep space proposals extend this model to the Moon and Mars, with NASA as an anchor customer rather than the sole owner of the hardware.

The most concrete proposal is the Starship HLS, selected by NASA in 2021 for the Artemis III lunar landing. Unlike the Apollo-era Saturn V, which was fully government-funded, Starship is developed by SpaceX with private capital, and NASA pays for specific mission services—landing astronauts on the Moon—rather than owning the rocket. This is a fundamental shift in how deep space infrastructure is financed and operated.

How the Proposals Work

The core structure of SpaceX’s public-private deep space proposals involves several key elements:

• Fixed-price contracts: NASA pays a set amount for a completed service, such as a lunar landing, rather than reimbursing development costs plus a fee.
• Reusable vehicles: Starship is designed to be fully reusable, which theoretically lowers the per-launch cost enough to make frequent deep space missions feasible.
• In-orbit refueling: To reach the Moon or Mars, Starship requires multiple tanker launches to fill its propellant tanks in low Earth orbit. This is a novel capability that NASA’s traditional architecture does not include.
• Commercial lunar landers: Beyond HLS, SpaceX has proposed using Starship for uncrewed cargo deliveries to the lunar surface, similar to its Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) missions to the ISS.
• Mars cargo missions: SpaceX has publicly discussed sending uncrewed Starships to Mars as early as the 2020s, funded partly by NASA contracts and partly by private investment, to test landing and resource utilization before crewed missions.

In practice, NASA does not direct the design of Starship; it specifies performance requirements (e.g., mass to the lunar surface, crew capacity) and conducts its own safety reviews. This is a departure from the traditional approach where NASA engineers specify every subsystem.

Key Milestones and Current Status

As of 2024, the following milestones are publicly known:

• 2021: NASA awards SpaceX a $2.9 billion contract for the Starship HLS for Artemis III.
• 2022: NASA awards a second HLS contract (Artemis IV) with an option for a larger, upgraded Starship.
• 2023: SpaceX conducts the first integrated test flight of Starship (Super Heavy booster + Starship upper stage) from Boca Chica, Texas. The first flight ended in a controlled destruction; subsequent flights improved.
• 2024: Test flights continue, with successful booster landings and upper-stage splashdowns. NASA’s Artemis III, currently scheduled for no earlier than 2026, depends on Starship’s readiness.

It is important to note that these dates are subject to change; SpaceX’s development timeline has repeatedly slipped, and NASA’s schedule adjusts accordingly.

Common Problems and Criticisms

The public-private approach has attracted both praise and criticism. Common concerns include:

• Technical risk: In-orbit refueling has never been done at scale, and Starship’s heat shield and landing systems are still unproven for lunar or Martian conditions.
• Schedule risk: SpaceX’s iterative development style, while fast, often misses deadlines. NASA’s Artemis program has been delayed multiple times due to Starship issues.
• Single-point dependency: If Starship fails to meet safety requirements, NASA has no backup lunar lander for Artemis III, creating a bottleneck.
• Cost uncertainty: While fixed-price contracts protect NASA from cost overruns, they also mean SpaceX bears the risk; if development costs exceed the contract, SpaceX must absorb the loss, which could delay or cancel the program.
• Regulatory and environmental issues: Starship launches from Boca Chica have faced FAA reviews and environmental lawsuits, adding delays.

Comparison with Traditional NASA Programs

To understand the novelty, compare Starship HLS with the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion capsule, which are traditional cost-plus contracts. SLS and Orion are owned by NASA, with contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin paid for development plus a profit margin. This has led to cost overruns and delays—SLS was originally projected to fly in 2016 but first flew in 2022. In contrast, Starship is privately funded and developed, with NASA paying only for mission services. This shifts the financial risk to SpaceX but also gives NASA less control over design changes.

Another comparison is with the Commercial Crew Program, where SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Boeing’s Starliner were developed under fixed-price contracts. Crew Dragon succeeded and has flown astronauts since 2020; Starliner faced technical issues and delays. This mixed record shows that public-private partnerships do not guarantee success, but they do offer a path to lower costs when the private partner executes well.

Costs and Funding

Exact costs are difficult to pin down because SpaceX does not publicly disclose its internal development spending. However, the HLS contracts are public: $2.9 billion for Artemis III and an additional $1.15 billion for Artemis IV (as of 2022). NASA has also funded several uncrewed lunar cargo studies, but no firm contract for Mars cargo has been signed. SpaceX’s own estimates for Starship development are in the billions, but these are not independently verified.

For context, the Apollo program cost roughly $25 billion in 1960s dollars (about $250 billion today). SLS and Orion have already cost over $40 billion since 2011. Starship’s total development cost is unknown, but SpaceX’s approach of rapid prototyping and reusability aims to reduce the marginal cost per launch to a few million dollars, which would make deep space missions far cheaper than any previous architecture.

Safety and Reliability Considerations

Deep space missions carry inherent risks: radiation exposure, long-duration life support, and the need for precise landing on other worlds. Starship’s safety case is still being built through test flights. NASA requires HLS to meet specific safety standards, including abort capabilities during launch and landing. For crewed missions, Starship must demonstrate reliable life support for the multi-day transit to the Moon and back. For Mars, the journey takes months, and no crewed vehicle has ever operated that long in deep space. SpaceX has not yet published a detailed safety case for Mars missions; these would require significant new technologies, such as in-situ resource utilization for return propellant.

Alternatives to the SpaceX Proposal

NASA has considered several alternatives to the Starship HLS:

• Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander: Selected by NASA in 2023 for a second HLS contract (for Artemis V), providing a backup and competition.
• Dynetics’ ALPACA: A proposal from the 2020 HLS competition that was not selected but showed an alternative approach.
• Direct Orion-SLS lunar landing: A hypothetical architecture where Orion itself lands on the Moon, but this would require a much larger SLS and is not currently feasible.
• International collaboration: Using ESA or JAXA landers, but none have crewed capability.

Having two HLS providers (SpaceX and Blue Origin) is NASA’s strategy to avoid a single-point failure, but both are still in development.

Frequently Asked Questions

What exactly is the Starship HLS?

The Starship Human Landing System is a variant of SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft designed to land astronauts on the Moon. It includes an elevator to lower crew to the surface, larger landing legs, and additional thrusters for the final descent. Unlike the standard Starship, it does not need a heat shield for reentry on Earth because it stays in space or on the Moon.

Why does NASA need SpaceX for the Moon?

NASA’s own SLS rocket can send Orion to lunar orbit, but it cannot land on the Moon. The HLS provides the “last mile” from lunar orbit to the surface and back. NASA chose SpaceX because the bid was significantly cheaper and more ambitious than competitors, and because Starship’s large payload capacity allows for more equipment and crew than the Apollo lander.

How does in-orbit refueling work?

Starship must be refueled in low Earth orbit before heading to the Moon. A tanker version of Starship launches multiple times, each carrying liquid methane and liquid oxygen, and docks with the crewed Starship to transfer propellant. This requires precise docking and cryogenic fluid transfer in microgravity, which has not yet been demonstrated at scale.

When will SpaceX land on the Moon?

NASA’s current target for Artemis III is no earlier than 2026, but this depends on Starship completing successful uncrewed test flights, including a landing demonstration on the Moon (planned as Artemis III precursor). Delays are likely; SpaceX’s test flight program has faced multiple setbacks, and NASA’s schedule has slipped several times already.

Is this the same as going to Mars?

No. The HLS is for the Moon. Mars missions would require a different version of Starship with longer-duration life support, radiation shielding, and the ability to produce fuel on Mars. SpaceX has stated its goal is to send uncrewed Starships to Mars in the 2020s, but no NASA contract exists for this yet; it would likely be a separate public-private agreement.

What happens if Starship fails?

If Starship cannot meet NASA’s safety or schedule requirements, NASA could delay Artemis III, use Blue Origin’s lander (if ready), or modify the mission to a lunar orbital flight without landing. The contract includes milestones and penalties for missed deadlines, but NASA has some flexibility to renegotiate.

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in t | Mission duration | days | 30 | 1 | 3650
in d | Distance to destination | million km | 225 | 1 | 10000
out avg_speed | Average speed | km/h | (d * 1000000) / (t * 24) | 0
out avg_speed_km_s | Average speed | km/s | (d * 1000000) / (t * 86400) | 2